2019: The Last Call

We believe 2019 will be a volatile year as companies and investors digest slowing global growth, higher borrowing costs, fading fiscal stimulus, Fed balance sheet tapering, Dollar strength, and other uncertainties including trade tariffs and a partial U.S. government shutdown. The economies of the U.S., China, Japan and Europe will be in various stages of slowing (U.S. from 3% to 2.2-2.5%). Currently, numerous U.S. leading economic indicators are flashing red, a worrisome development. Lagging indicators remain green but may shift over the next 3-12 months. For 2019 we expect positive earnings and stock market momentum to carry into the year; however, slowing growth and rising interest rates may again pressure risk assets in the second half of the year.

Click here to view the full version of the “2019: The Last Call” letter with several dozen accompanying charts.